Productivity of mixed kelp communities in an Arctic fjord exhibit tolerance to a future climate.

Arctic fjords are considered to be one of the ecosystems changing most rapidly in response to climate change. In the Svalbard archipelago, fjords are experiencing a shift in environmental conditions due to the Atlantification of Arctic waters and the retreat of sea-terminating glaciers. These environmental changes are predicted to facilitate expansion of large, brown macroalgae, into new ice-free regions. The potential resilience of macroalgal benthic communities in these fjord systems will depend on their response to combined pressures from freshening due to glacial melt, exposure to warmer waters, and increased turbidity from meltwater runoff which reduces light penetration. Current predictions, however, have a limited ability to elucidate the future impacts of multiple-drivers on macroalgal communities with respect to ecosystem function and biogeochemical cycling in Arctic fjords. To assess the impact of these combined future environmental changes on benthic productivity and resilience, we conducted a two-month mesocosm experiment exposing mixed kelp communities to three future conditions comprising increased temperature (+ 3.3 and + 5.3°C), seawater freshening by ∼ 3.0 and ∼ 5.0 units (i.e., salinity of 30 and 28, respectively), and decreased photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, - 25 and - 40 %). Exposure to these combined treatments resulted in non-significant differences in short-term productivity, and a tolerance of the photosynthetic capacity across the treatment conditions. We present the first robust estimates of mixed kelp community production in Kongsfjorden and place a median compensation irradiance of ∼12.5 mmol photons m-2 h-1 as the threshold for positive net community productivity. These results are discussed in the context of ecosystem productivity and biological tolerance of kelp communities in future Arctic fjord systems.

Response of two temperate scleractinian corals to projected ocean warming and marine heatwaves.

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of global change, particularly exposed to ocean warming and the increasing occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, experiments based on long-term temperature data from the field are scarce. Here, we investigate the response of the zooxanthellate coral Cladocora caespitosa and the azooxanthellate coral Astroides calycularis to future warming and MHWs based on 8 years of in situ data. Corals were maintained in the laboratory for five months under four temperature conditions: Warming (3.2°C above the in situ mean from 2012 to 2020), Heatwave (temperatures of 2018 with two heatwaves), Ambient (in situ mean) and Cool (deeper water temperatures). Under the Warming treatment, some C. caespitosa colonies severely bleached and A. calycularis colonies presented necrosis. Cladocora caespitosa symbiosis was impaired by temperature with a decrease in the density of endosymbiotic algae and an increase in per cent whiteness in all the treatments except for the coolest. Recovery for both species was observed through different mechanisms such as regrowth of polyps of A. calycularis and recovery of pigmentation for C. caespitosa. These results suggest that A. calycularis and C. caespitosa may be resilient to heat stress and can recover from physiological stresses caused by heatwaves in the laboratory.

Corals at the edge of environmental limits: A new conceptual framework to re-define marginal and extreme coral communities.

The worldwide decline of coral reefs has renewed interest in coral communities at the edge of environmental limits because they have the potential to serve as resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and can provide insights into how coral reefs might function in future ocean conditions. These coral communities are often referred to as marginal or extreme but few definitions exist and usage of these terms has therefore been inconsistent. This creates significant challenges for categorising these often poorly studied communities and synthesising data across locations. Furthermore, this impedes our understanding of how coral communities can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and the lessons they provide for future coral reef survival. Here, we propose that marginal and extreme coral communities are related but distinct and provide a novel conceptual framework to redefine them. Specifically, we define coral reef extremeness solely based on environmental conditions (i.e., large deviations from optimal conditions in terms of mean and/or variance) and marginality solely based on ecological criteria (i.e., altered community composition and/or ecosystem functioning). This joint but independent assessment of environmental and ecological criteria is critical to avoid common pitfalls where coral communities existing outside the presumed optimal conditions for coral reef development are automatically considered inferior to coral reefs in more traditional settings. We further evaluate the differential potential of marginal and extreme coral communities to serve as natural laboratories, resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and discuss strategies for their conservation and management as well as priorities for future research. Our new classification framework provides an important tool to improve our understanding of how corals can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and how we can leverage this knowledge to optimise strategies for coral reef conservation, restoration and management in a rapidly changing ocean.

Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change.

Projecting the effects of climate change on net reef calcium carbonate production is critical to understanding the future impacts on ecosystem function, but prior estimates have not included corals' natural adaptive capacity to such change. Here we estimate how the ability of symbionts to evolve tolerance to heat stress, or for coral hosts to shuffle to favourable symbionts, and their combination, may influence responses to the combined impacts of ocean warming and acidification under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling, both individually and when combined, favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production (NCCP) under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19%-35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive NCCP by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP. Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive NCCP drops to 9%-13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive NCPP of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Climate change and species facilitation affect the recruitment of macroalgal marine forests.

Marine forests are shrinking globally due to several anthropogenic impacts including climate change. Forest-forming macroalgae, such as Cystoseira s.l. species, can be particularly sensitive to environmental conditions (e.g. temperature increase, pollution or sedimentation), especially during early life stages. However, not much is known about their response to the interactive effects of ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA). These drivers can also affect the performance and survival of crustose coralline algae, which are associated understory species likely playing a role in the recruitment of later successional species such as forest-forming macroalgae. We tested the interactive effects of elevated temperature, low pH and species facilitation on the recruitment of Cystoseira compressa. We demonstrate that the interactive effects of OW and OA negatively affect the recruitment of C. compressa and its associated coralline algae Neogoniolithon brassica-florida. The density of recruits was lower under the combinations OW and OA, while the size was negatively affected by the temperature increase but positively affected by the low pH. The results from this study show that the interactive effects of climate change and the presence of crustose coralline algae can have a negative impact on the recruitment of Cystoseira s.l. species. While new restoration techniques recently opened the door to marine forest restoration, our results show that the interactions of multiple drivers and species interactions have to be considered to achieve long-term population sustainability.

Impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcifying coral reef taxa: mechanisms responsible and adaptive capacity.

Ocean warming (OW) and acidification (OA) are two of the greatest global threats to the persistence of coral reefs. Calcifying reef taxa such as corals and coralline algae provide the essential substrate and habitat in tropical reefs but are at particular risk due to their susceptibility to both OW and OA. OW poses the greater threat to future reef growth and function, via its capacity to destabilise the productivity of both taxa, and to cause mass bleaching events and mortality of corals. Marine heatwaves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration over the coming decades, raising the question of whether coral reefs will be able to persist as functioning ecosystems and in what form. OA should not be overlooked, as its negative impacts on the calcification of reef-building corals and coralline algae will have consequences for global reef accretion. Given that OA can have negative impacts on the reproduction and early life stages of both coralline algae and corals, the interdependence of these taxa may result in negative feedbacks for reef replenishment. However, there is little evidence that OA causes coral bleaching or exacerbates the effects of OW on coral bleaching. Instead, there is some evidence that OA alters the photo-physiology of both taxa. Tropical coralline algal possess shorter generation times than corals, which could enable more rapid evolutionary responses. Future reefs will be dominated by taxa with shorter generation times and high plasticity, or those individuals inherently resistant and resilient to both marine heatwaves and OA.

pH variability at volcanic CO2 seeps regulates coral calcifying fluid chemistry.

Coral reefs are iconic ecosystems with immense ecological, economic and cultural value, but globally their carbonate-based skeletal construction is threatened by ocean acidification (OA). Identifying coral species that have specialised mechanisms to maintain high rates of calcification in the face of declining seawater pH is of paramount importance in predicting future species composition, and growth of coral reefs. Here, we studied multiple coral species from two distinct volcanic CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea to assess their capacity to control their calcifying fluid (CF) chemistry. Several coral species living under conditions of low mean seawater pH, but with either low or high variability in seawater pH, were examined and compared with those living in 'normal' (non-seep) ambient seawater pH. We show that when mean seawater pH is low but highly variable, corals have a greater ability to maintain constant pHcf in their CF, but this characteristic was not linked with changes in abundance. Within less variable low pH seawater, corals with limited reductions in pHcf at the seep sites compared with controls tended to be more abundant at the seep site than at the control site. However, this finding was strongly influenced by a single species (Montipora foliosa), which was able to maintain complete pHcf homeostasis. Overall, although our findings indicate that there might be an association between ecological success and greater pHcf homeostasis, further research with additional species and at more sites with differing seawater pH regimes is required to solidify inferences regarding coral ecological success under future OA.

Understanding coralline algal responses to ocean acidification: Meta-analysis and synthesis.

Ocean acidification (OA) is a major threat to the persistence of biogenic reefs throughout the world's ocean. Coralline algae are comprised of high magnesium calcite and have long been considered one of the most susceptible taxa to the negative impacts of OA. We summarize these impacts and explore the causes of variability in coralline algal responses using a review/qualitative assessment of all relevant literature, meta-analysis, quantitative assessment of critical responses, and a discussion of physiological mechanisms and directions for future research. We find that most coralline algae experienced reduced abundance, calcification rates, recruitment rates, and declines in pH within the site of calcification in laboratory experiments simulating OA or at naturally elevated CO2 sites. There were no other consistent physiological responses of coralline algae to simulated OA (e.g., photo-physiology, mineralogy, and survival). Calcification/growth was the most frequently measured parameters in coralline algal OA research, and our meta-analyses revealed greater declines in seawater pH were associated with significant decreases in calcification in adults and similar but nonsignificant trends for juveniles. Adults from the family Mesophyllumaceae also tended to be more robust to OA, though there was insufficient data to test similar trends for juveniles. OA was the dominant driver in the majority of laboratory experiments where other local or global drivers were assessed. The interaction between OA and any other single driver was often additive, though factors that changed pH at the surface of coralline algae (light, water motion, epiphytes) acted antagonistically or synergistically with OA more than any other drivers. With advances in experimental design and methodological techniques, we now understand that the physiology of coralline algal calcification largely dictates their responses to OA. However, significant challenges still remain, including improving the geographic and life-history spread of research effort and a need for holistic assessments of physiology.

Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming.

Ocean warming and acidification threaten the future growth of coral reefs. This is because the calcifying coral reef taxa that construct the calcium carbonate frameworks and cement the reef together are highly sensitive to ocean warming and acidification. However, the global-scale effects of ocean warming and acidification on rates of coral reef net carbonate production remain poorly constrained despite a wealth of studies assessing their effects on the calcification of individual organisms. Here, we present global estimates of projected future changes in coral reef net carbonate production under ocean warming and acidification. We apply a meta-analysis of responses of coral reef taxa calcification and bioerosion rates to predicted changes in coral cover driven by climate change to estimate the net carbonate production rates of 183 reefs worldwide by 2050 and 2100. We forecast mean global reef net carbonate production under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 will decline by 76, 149, and 156%, respectively, by 2100. While 63% of reefs are projected to continue to accrete by 2100 under RCP2.6, 94% will be eroding by 2050 under RCP8.5, and no reefs will continue to accrete at rates matching projected sea level rise under RCP4.5 or 8.5 by 2100. Projected reduced coral cover due to bleaching events predominately drives these declines rather than the direct physiological impacts of ocean warming and acidification on calcification or bioerosion. Presently degraded reefs were also more sensitive in our analysis. These findings highlight the low likelihood that the world's coral reefs will maintain their functional roles without near-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 emissions.

Ocean acidification causes variable trait-shifts in a coral species.

High pCO2 habitats and their populations provide an unparalleled opportunity to assess how species may survive under future ocean acidification conditions, and help to reveal the traits that confer tolerance. Here we utilize a unique CO2 vent system to study the effects of exposure to elevated pCO2 on trait-shifts observed throughout natural populations of Astroides calycularis, an azooxanthellate scleractinian coral endemic to the Mediterranean. Unexpected shifts in skeletal and growth patterns were found. Colonies shifted to a skeletal phenotype characterized by encrusting morphology, smaller size, reduced coenosarc tissue, fewer polyps, and less porous and denser skeletons at low pH. Interestingly, while individual polyps calcified more and extended faster at low pH, whole colonies found at low pH site calcified and extended their skeleton at the same rate as did those at ambient pH sites. Transcriptomic data revealed strong genetic differentiation among local populations of this warm water species whose distribution range is currently expanding northward. We found excess differentiation in the CO2 vent population for genes central to calcification, including genes for calcium management (calmodulin, calcium-binding proteins), pH regulation (V-type proton ATPase), and inorganic carbon regulation (carbonic anhydrase). Combined, our results demonstrate how coral populations can persist in high pCO2 environments, making this system a powerful candidate for investigating acclimatization and local adaptation of organisms to global environmental change.

Investigating marine bio-calcification mechanisms in a changing ocean with in vivo and high-resolution ex vivo Raman spectroscopy.

Ocean acidification poses a serious threat to marine calcifying organisms, yet experimental and field studies have found highly diverse responses among species and environments. Our understanding of the underlying drivers of differential responses to ocean acidification is currently limited by difficulties in directly observing and quantifying the mechanisms of bio-calcification. Here, we present Raman spectroscopy techniques for characterizing the skeletal mineralogy and calcifying fluid chemistry of marine calcifying organisms such as corals, coralline algae, foraminifera, and fish (carbonate otoliths). First, our in vivo Raman technique is the ideal tool for investigating non-classical mineralization pathways. This includes calcification by amorphous particle attachment, which has recently been controversially suggested as a mechanism by which corals resist the negative effects of ocean acidification. Second, high-resolution ex vivo Raman mapping reveals complex banding structures in the mineralogy of marine calcifiers, and provides a tool to quantify calcification responses to environmental variability on various timescales from days to years. We describe the new insights into marine bio-calcification that our techniques have already uncovered, and we consider the wide range of questions regarding calcifier responses to global change that can now be proposed and addressed with these new Raman spectroscopy tools.

Similar controls on calcification under ocean acidification across unrelated coral reef taxa.

Ocean acidification (OA) is a major threat to marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs which are heavily reliant on calcareous species. OA decreases seawater pH and calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω), and increases the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Intense scientific effort has attempted to determine the mechanisms via which ocean acidification (OA) influences calcification, led by early hypotheses that calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) is the main driver. We grew corals and coralline algae for 8-21 weeks, under treatments where the seawater parameters Ω, pH, and DIC were manipulated to examine their differential effects on calcification rates and calcifying fluid chemistry (Ωcf , pHcf , and DICcf ). Here, using long duration experiments, we provide geochemical evidence that differing physiological controls on carbonate chemistry at the site of calcification, rather than seawater Ω, are the main determinants of calcification. We found that changes in seawater pH and DIC rather than Ω had the greatest effects on calcification and calcifying fluid chemistry, though the effects of seawater carbonate chemistry were limited. Our results demonstrate the capacity of organisms from taxa with vastly different calcification mechanisms to regulate their internal chemistry under extreme chemical conditions. These findings provide an explanation for the resistance of some species to OA, while also demonstrating how changes in seawater DIC and pH under OA influence calcification of key coral reef taxa.

Marine heatwave causes unprecedented regional mass bleaching of thermally resistant corals in northwestern Australia.

In 2015/16, a marine heatwave associated with a record El Niño led to the third global mass bleaching event documented to date. This event impacted coral reefs around the world, including in Western Australia (WA), although WA reefs had largely escaped bleaching during previous strong El Niño years. Coral health surveys were conducted during the austral summer of 2016 in four bioregions along the WA coast (~17 degrees of latitude), ranging from tropical to temperate locations. Here we report the first El Niño-related regional-scale mass bleaching event in WA. The heatwave primarily affected the macrotidal Kimberley region in northwest WA (~16°S), where 4.5-9.3 degree heating weeks (DHW) resulted in 56.6-80.6% bleaching, demonstrating that even heat-tolerant corals from naturally extreme, thermally variable reef environments are threatened by heatwaves. Some heat stress (2.4 DHW) and bleaching (<30%) also occurred at Rottnest Island (32°01'S), whereas coral communities at Ningaloo Reef (23°9'S) and Bremer Bay (34°25'S) were not impacted. The only other major mass bleaching in WA occurred during a strong La Niña event in 2010/11 and primarily affected reefs along the central-to-southern coast. This suggests that WA reefs are now at risk of severe bleaching during both El Niño and La Niña years.

Coralline algae elevate pH at the site of calcification under ocean acidification.

Coralline algae provide important ecosystem services but are susceptible to the impacts of ocean acidification. However, the mechanisms are uncertain, and the magnitude is species specific. Here, we assess whether species-specific responses to ocean acidification of coralline algae are related to differences in pH at the site of calcification within the calcifying fluid/medium (pHcf ) using δ11 B as a proxy. Declines in δ11 B for all three species are consistent with shifts in δ11 B expected if B(OH)4- was incorporated during precipitation. In particular, the δ11 B ratio in Amphiroa anceps was too low to allow for reasonable pHcf values if B(OH)3 rather than B(OH)4- was directly incorporated from the calcifying fluid. This points towards δ11 B being a reliable proxy for pHcf for coralline algal calcite and that if B(OH)3 is present in detectable proportions, it can be attributed to secondary postincorporation transformation of B(OH)4- . We thus show that pHcf is elevated during calcification and that the extent is species specific. The net calcification of two species of coralline algae (Sporolithon durum, and Amphiroa anceps) declined under elevated CO2 , as did their pHcf . Neogoniolithon sp. had the highest pHcf , and most constant calcification rates, with the decrease in pHcf being » that of seawater pH in the treatments, demonstrating a control of coralline algae on carbonate chemistry at their site of calcification. The discovery that coralline algae upregulate pHcf under ocean acidification is physiologically important and should be included in future models involving calcification.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Framework of barrier reefs threatened by ocean acidification.

To date, studies of ocean acidification (OA) on coral reefs have focused on organisms rather than communities, and the few community effects that have been addressed have focused on shallow back reef habitats. The effects of OA on outer barrier reefs, which are the most striking of coral reef habitats and are functionally and physically different from back reefs, are unknown. Using 5-m long outdoor flumes to create treatment conditions, we constructed coral reef communities comprised of calcified algae, corals, and reef pavement that were assembled to match the community structure at 17 m depth on the outer barrier reef of Moorea, French Polynesia. Communities were maintained under ambient and 1200 µatm pCO2 for 7 weeks, and net calcification rates were measured at different flow speeds. Community net calcification was significantly affected by OA, especially at night when net calcification was depressed ~78% compared to ambient pCO2 . Flow speed (2-14 cm s(-1) ) enhanced net calcification only at night under elevated pCO2 . Reef pavement also was affected by OA, with dissolution ~86% higher under elevated pCO2 compared to ambient pCO2 . These results suggest that net accretion of outer barrier reef communities will decline under OA conditions predicted within the next 100 years, largely because of increased dissolution of reef pavement. Such extensive dissolution poses a threat to the carbonate foundation of barrier reef communities.

Impact of aragonite saturation state changes on migratory pteropods.

Thecosome pteropods play a key role in the food web of various marine ecosystems and they calcify, secreting the unstable CaCO(3) mineral aragonite to form their shell material. Here, we have estimated the effect of ocean acidification on pteropod calcification by exploiting empirical relationships between their gross calcification rates (CaCO(3) precipitation) and aragonite saturation state Ω(a), combined with model projections of future Ω(a). These were corrected for modern model-data bias and taken over the depth range where pteropods are observed to migrate vertically. Results indicate large reductions in gross calcification at temperate and high latitudes. Over much of the Arctic, the pteropod Limacina helicina will become unable to precipitate CaCO(3) by the end of the century under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. These results emphasize concerns over the future of shelled pteropods, particularly L. helicina in high latitudes. Shell-less L. helicina are not known to have ever existed nor would we expect them to survive. Declines of pteropod populations could drive dramatic ecological changes in the various pelagic ecosystems in which they play a critical role.

Response of the Arctic pteropod Limacina helicina to projected future environmental conditions.

Thecosome pteropods (pelagic mollusks) can play a key role in the food web of various marine ecosystems. They are a food source for zooplankton or higher predators such as fishes, whales and birds that is particularly important in high latitude areas. Since they harbor a highly soluble aragonitic shell, they could be very sensitive to ocean acidification driven by the increase of anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. The effect of changes in the seawater chemistry was investigated on Limacina helicina, a key species of Arctic pelagic ecosystems. Individuals were kept in the laboratory under controlled pCO(2) levels of 280, 380, 550, 760 and 1020 microatm and at control (0 degrees C) and elevated (4 degrees C) temperatures. The respiration rate was unaffected by pCO(2) at control temperature, but significantly increased as a function of the pCO(2) level at elevated temperature. pCO(2) had no effect on the gut clearance rate at either temperature. Precipitation of CaCO(3), measured as the incorporation of (45)Ca, significantly declined as a function of pCO(2) at both temperatures. The decrease in calcium carbonate precipitation was highly correlated to the aragonite saturation state. Even though this study demonstrates that pteropods are able to precipitate calcium carbonate at low aragonite saturation state, the results support the current concern for the future of Arctic pteropods, as the production of their shell appears to be very sensitive to decreased pH. A decline of pteropod populations would likely cause dramatic changes to various pelagic ecosystems.